CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31706/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature for this CME. Starting around 2024-06-29T14:30Z, rotation in magnetic field components is seen in ACE and DSCOVR data. Further analysis of this event may be of interest to the research community. Faint CME visible in the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and the S/SE in STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption centered around S10W05, between ARs 3719 and 3720. Liftoff and brightening starting around 2024-06-25T22:18Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-29T14:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-06-26T07:01Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 395
Longitude (deg): 2E
Latitude (deg): 9S
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes: faint 
Space weather advisor: LH

Lead Time: 69.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-06-26T16:08Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement